🔗 Share this article

Things were simpler then. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten three home nations, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a international match.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, indeed, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but not the outcomes.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Through their brilliance, their power, game management, they get the job done.

As match day approaches where positive expectations that supporters maintained for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

In an era when most props are replaced early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of limited game time.

Once Rae's shift ends, his replacement takes over. While competent, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Coaching Choices

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches recently, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and 60 in the second half.

Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

In recent years, successful opponents have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. Vocal support. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.