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Mounting concerns are present about the chance of armed conflict involving East African neighbours, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as aggressive rhetoric has ratcheted up in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's calls for passage to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has sparked a intense rhetorical conflict.

PM Abiy Ahmed previously announced in 2023 that his nation's maritime access was an vital issue, comments that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Relations between the both governments have regularly been difficult. Following a decades-long battle for independence, Eritrea, which has a long maritime frontage, officially seceded from Ethiopian rule in 1993, leaving it without sea access.

In 1998, a territorial conflict erupted in which numerous people lost their lives.

Latest Statements from Ethiopia's Officials

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted ownership of Eritrea's southern port of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the frontier - and implied the intention to seize it militarily.

In early September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "error" of losing entry to the sea as a due to Eritrea secession would be "rectified in the future".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be restored "using武力".

Eritrean Reaction to the Claims

In the face of persistent threats from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been restricted to brief comments on online platforms from Communications Head Yemane G..

The minister has dismissed Ethiopian requests for access to the Red Sea describing it as "risky" and a "negative policy" of "expansionism" – a policy of claiming back previous domains.

Eritrean authorities cautioned on mid-September that moves to validate "blatant hostility" would have serious consequences for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Activities on the Region

Currently, there are few indications of major military movements in the frontier regions between the two countries.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, state television has broadcast completion events of many recruits at various military training camps.

The leader of human resources department of the defense force, General Hachalu, commented lately in an interview that the army was in a "strong stance" as "tens of thousands of recruits" were joining it, which he said was "a message to our opponents".

Past Origins of the Dispute

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, Eritrea was ruled by Italian rulers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then controlled by the British administration before turning into a integrated region of the Ethiopian empire.

However in 1962 the ruler cancelled this agreement and Eritrea became fully incorporated into the Ethiopian state.

A extended internal conflict ensued, finishing with military reversal in 1991. Sovereignty was then endorsed by Eritreans in a vote in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the governments in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they clashed over the exact location of their shared boundary, causing hostilities in 1998.

Although this concluded in a truce in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the two nations stayed at in dispute.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made overtures to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The two endorsed a declaration that the conflict was finished – a move that gained Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

The two governments were then partners in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 civil war in Tigray.

But diplomatic connections have subsequently deteriorated anew.